Not all private credit is created equal
The trailing default rate across some 1,300 U.S. private credit borrowers reached a record 6.3% in August — and how those defaults are showing up argues for selectivity, not retreat.
ReadCommentary
Perspective from our team, including periodic letters to our friends and clients, with notes on markets, planning topics, and other themes that affect investment outcomes.
Belvest Briefs
Short notes on a single development — what happened, what it means, and what, if anything, it changes for portfolios.
Macro Data
Periodic data snapshots: charts, economic indicators, rates, the fiscal picture that can inform positioning.
Macro Dashboard —
A snapshot of rates and the curve, inflation and real yields, credit conditions, the dollar and commodities, and GDP & profits.
ViewMacro Dashboard —
A snapshot of rates and the curve, inflation and real yields, credit conditions, the dollar and commodities, and GDP & profits.
ViewMacro Dashboard —
A snapshot of rates and the curve, inflation and real yields, credit conditions, the dollar and commodities, and GDP & profits.
ViewMacro Dashboard —
A snapshot of rates and the curve, inflation and real yields, credit conditions, the dollar and commodities, and GDP & profits.
ViewMacro Dashboard —
A snapshot of rates and the curve, inflation and real yields, credit conditions, the dollar and commodities, and GDP & profits.
ViewMacro Dashboard —
A snapshot of rates and the curve, inflation and real yields, credit conditions, the dollar and commodities, and GDP & profits.
ViewMacro Dashboard —
A snapshot of rates and the curve, inflation and real yields, credit conditions, the dollar and commodities, and GDP & profits.
View
Article
Ahead of the curve?
The Treasury curve slopes upward again — but at higher yields. Set beside 1995 and 2008, today’s curve says more about the cost of borrowing than about whether recession risk has passed.
ReadArticle
O Market, Where Art Thou?
Nearly one in five S&P 500 stocks now has a negative beta — extreme concentration at the top of the index, combined with the lowest average correlation since 1990 underneath it, may help explain why.
ReadArticle
Is the AI trade over?
The long-AI-beneficiaries, short-AI-at-risk trade has reversed sharply just as individual investors have turned decidedly bearish — two signals that may be telling different stories.
ReadArticle
Oversold doesn’t mean cheap
An oversold S&P 500 meets record household equity exposure, a narrowed earnings-yield advantage and an exceptional trailing decade — technicals and fundamentals are sending mixed signals.
ReadArticle
Is it time for duration?
Long Treasuries have just posted their weakest decade in modern history — but a changed buyer base, hedge-fund leverage and AI-related bond supply complicate the case for mean reversion.
ReadArticle
Who will buy America’s debt?
Rising federal interest costs meet fatigued foreign demand — why the real question may not be whether the U.S. can finance its debt, but at what price, and what a higher equilibrium cost of capital would mean for bond investors.
ReadArticle
Canada’s trade problem could become an investment problem
Escalating U.S.–Canada trade tensions could change where companies invest — with consequences for Canadian manufacturing, equities, and Mexico’s rising share of the U.S. market.
Read